I have always believed that a significant indicator of what’s next to come can be found in patterns within % share of market cap. Here you will see that since the start of the year (when institutional investment caused a significant spike in overall cryptocurrency market cap), an interesting pattern seems to be taking form specific to Bitcoin’s overall % share of market cap. Every ~50% decline in BTC % of total market cap is followed by a ~50% run up in same metric with respect to BTC.
From a cryptocurrency market capitalization perspective, this translates into something interesting (albeit speculative). Once we approach the 50% line (sell off), the market tends to drive upward due to investment in many of the more speculative alts at their newly discounted prices. Bitcoin market cap therefore dives with respect to total market cap and we have a season of alt-coin break out.
I will continue testing this theory as time goes one and I can collect more data points.
Ethereum dominance with respect to market cap has remained flat or is growing relative to the market downturns that have occurred since the beginning of 2018. The rest of Big 10 continue to lag in market cap for January and we are even seeing a general sell off of alt-coins on aggregate.
This indicates that cryptocurrency investors have a positive long-term outlook on Ethereum. Such a lack of volatility relative to the market shows a confidence that is not visible from other coins and tokens. With that being said, at the time of writing this Ethereum’s total market cap is 61% that of Bitcoin (an all-time high).
We might be in store for a solid Ethereum run up in the next 2 – 4 weeks and here’s why**:
- Last May, the Ripple dominance line crossed over the Ethereum line and abruptly shot back down. This led to a sharp spike in Ethereum dominance over the next several weeks. I surmise that this was Ripple institutional pumpers pouring their profits into Ethereum as a long-term bet. (See #1 in chart below)
- Alt Coin Pump and Dump:
- RaiBlocks(#XRB) – DOWN 45% in 10 days
- Tron (#TRX) – DOW 77% in 10 days
- Cardano (#ADA) – DOWN 40% in 10 days
- Ripple (#XRP) – DOWN 52% in 10 days
- Approx. 10 days ago, we had the same trend occur with Ripple surpassing ETH dominance (see #2 in chart below), but there is a key difference to call out. Alt coins were also being pumped at the same time causing enormous profits to early and institutional investors who have since dumped. I believe they will begin pouring this money back into the coins they trust (Ethereum, Bitcoin, and possibly Monero due to Bitcoin transaction backlog).
**None of the information in this article or in the Bellblock.io Blog should be taken as investment advice. I am simply putting data together to paint a picture for my readers. You are responsible for your own investments and research.
With the influx of demand for new cryptocurrencies and tokens, many exchanges have fully halted new registration due to site instability from trade volume. This means that new cryptocurrency traders are going to have a hard time finding some of the coins that are accessible to early entrants into the market.
Here is the list of all exchanges that are not longer accepting new users:
If you’re one of those early adopters, the good news is that there’s a wave of demand on the horizon and it’s so vast that most of the world’s exchanges can’t handle the volume. This also means that the real price and volume of most currencies are not fully reflected on websites such as Coinmarketcap and Cryptocompare. For all of the business savvy people out there, this is a great opportunity to create decentralized exchanges that can scale to this volume. See Ether Delta for an example of this.
DISCLAIMER**I am not a member of Pirl and have not been paid for this blog. You should not take this as investing advice of any sort. If and when I am interested in a project, I simply post my thoughts and rational**
Starting with Fundamentals
A cryptocurrency is only as strong as its community and a community will only believe in a cryptocurrency if it provides
- Adequate incentives
- Something that people can generally understand and believe in
These are some of the basic fundamentals I look for when evaluating a new cryptocurrency; consider them as true north in case you become lost in this ever-expanding sea of coins.
While traveling back from the Ethereum Classic Summit in Hong Kong a new coin called Pirl caught my eye as mining profitability seemed to spike overnight (fundamental 1) and almost no one was talking about it. I commenced with my standard cadence of looking at the Pirl Bitcointalk announcement and checking out the Pirl Subreddit for additional information. I found a small but excited community that was highly engaged and active in the project. So much so that a community led marketing campaign to expand the subreddit subscribes took place and successfully captured 200 new subs in 3 days. Once complete, community manager @oliveskin proceeded to tip all users who submitted proof of their campaign efforts in their Discord Channel… (again fundamental 1)
At this point, I was excited to learn more about the project and decided to check out their website for additional information. I usually look at coin/token websites last because I want to know if the community understands and believes in the project first before I’m beaten over the head with the sales pitch.
So what is Pirl?
Pirl is an Ethereum-based, ASIC-resistant cryptocurrency, that will eventually provide masternodes and a marketplace to customers to purchase and sell goods.
I had a few questions and their FAQ answers some of the difficult questions. Something most projects never do. (fundamental 2).
The masternode on Ethereum concept is quite the draw since this is a mineable coin with a block time of only 13 seconds and reward of 10 PIRL. This combined with 0 premine and a built-in dev fund makes for a scenario in which the core team must work and produce results to generate funding for themselves via coin price.
- No whitepaper – The whitepaper is a staple for a coin and one that is well-thought-out signals proper planning for core team. I reached out to core team on Reddit and will provide updates if a whitepaper is provided (fundamental 3).
- No upper bound to total supply – On their website, Pirl says “this is because of a high burn rate by means of our unique voting system as well as the pirl marketplace platform.” [edited typos] but without an understanding of this burn rate, it’s hard to judge the efficacy of this statement.